Customs data show that in June this year, China’s import and export both declined, and the trade surplus continued to narrow. Exports reached US$ 285.32 billion, down 12.4% year-on-year; Imports reached US$ 214.70 billion, down 6.8% year-on-year, and the trade surplus was US$ 70.62 billion, narrowing by 27.89%.
In dollar terms, China’s total import and export value in the first six months of this year was 2.92 trillion US dollars, down by 4.7%, of which exports were 1.66 trillion US dollars, down by 3.2%, imports were 1.25 trillion US dollars, down by 6.7%, and the trade surplus was 408.69 billion US dollars, up by 6.03%.
According to professional analysis, except for the automobile and electromechanical industries, the export continues to be high. There are several typical industries that continue to decline. For example, as the electronic consumer market enters the stock market, the global consumer electronics cycle is still weak, and the growth rate of consumer electronics exports such as mobile phones and computers continues to decline, falling back to -11.2% and -9.3% in June. In addition, the export of labor-intensive products also deteriorated in June. Except for luggage and similar containers, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of exports in the first six months was positive, such as clothing, shoes, hats and toys, which were basically negative. The export of traditional steel products is even closer to the waist, and the year-on-year growth rate dropped to -42.7% in June.
Looking around China’s major trading countries, life is hard. In May, the year-on-year growth rate of South Korean exports was -15.2%, which continued to decline by 0.9 percentage points on the basis of the deep decline in April. In May, Vietnam’s exports fell by 5.9% year-on-year, which has been falling for four consecutive months. Reuters quoted analysts as saying that in the past 12-18 months, the sharp tightening of global monetary policy and the recent pressure on western banks have brought worries about the road to global economic recovery.
n May, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the tenth time in a row. After this rate hike, the US federal funds rate rose to the range of 5.00%-5.25%, the highest since 2007.
After raising interest rates in May, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that it is inappropriate to cut interest rates now. He believes that inflation will fall, but the speed will not be very fast, and it will take time to fall.
“If this forecast is generally correct, then it is not appropriate to cut interest rates, and we will not cut interest rates.” He further stated that if demand weakens further and there are more signs of softening in the labor market, interest rate cuts may be considered.
The purpose of the Fed’s interest rate hike is to curb inflation, but it will remain at a high level after continuous interest rate hikes, which will increase the borrowing costs of enterprises and individuals and suppress the demand in major global markets.
Post time: Jul-26-2023